In the 30+ years I have been in this business, I do not recall a time when so many were so convinced that a recession was inevitable… which is precisely why I doubt a severe recession will occur this year. The economy flows in a way not dissimilar to nature. Nature has its seasons, the economy has the business cycle; the difference is human psychology.

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Created Equal?

These bank failures are all very risky endeavors and not indicative of any problem in the normal banking system. It is even more irresponsible than usual for the financial media to be stoking fear: We are not in a financial crisis, but we can be by the end of this week if everyone sells everything and hides the cash under their mattress.

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Fourth Quarter 2022

Does the Fed have any real power? Wall Street strategists are far more bearish than Wall Street analysts. The strategists see the current situation as driven by the actions of the Federal Reserve, while analysts see the world from the bottom-up, and it simply does not look so bad from that view.

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