In the 30-plus years I have been in this business, I do not recall a time when so many were so convinced that a recession was inevitable… which is precisely why I doubt a severe recession will occur this year. The economy flows in a way not dissimilar to nature. Nature has its seasons, and the economy has the business cycle; the difference is human psychology.

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2023: What to Expect?

Every market strategist seems to have the same outlook going into 2023:  The market will struggle in the first half of the year, then rally toward the end. This groupthink alone should be taken as evidence that there is a high probability of this forecast being wrong.

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Does The Fed Have to Pivot?

Financial pundits keep saying that the stock market cannot maintain a rally until the Federal Reserve “pivots” from a policy of raising interest rates to a policy of lowering interest rates. They are, as usual, wrong, but there is something bigger afoot here:  This modern idea that we must be on one extreme or the other.

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