Old Ideas

College basketball is not the only place where old ideas refuse to die. The financial markets are full of old ideas that simply refuse to go away. For example, we simply must have a bear market because one is supposed to happen every five years. Over the history of the stock market, we typically get a bear market once every five years. The idea here today is that a bear market must be looming because we have not had one since the 2008 financial crisis.

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Down, Up, Down Up…The Art of Going Nowhere

This up-down nature is sometimes blamed on the Fed and interest rates, and sometimes blamed on the trade war. In our opinion, the latter explanation is the correct one. Our current administration seems to view life as a zero-sum game. That is a very bleak way of looking at life; life is a win-win proposition.

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First Quarter 2019

Ultimately all these ideas persist because of the fatal flaw of economics as a science. In the hard sciences the scientific method requires a control – this group gets the experimental treatment while this other group gets a placebo. The treatment works or it does not. There is no control group in economics. So what are investors to do?

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