The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.
John Maynard Keynes
Why are we here? This has been the central question of humankind since the beginning of time. Every ancient religion and philosophy that survives the test of time has dealt with this question at its center. Historically, this was the central theme of classic liberal arts education. What is the meaning of life? It isn’t…
We live in troubling times, and these times require people to speak out. Many have done so over the last few weeks, and some may even criticize Iron Capital for not being faster to join that movement. Our clients have heard me say this countless times: we are human beings and we will make mistakes,…
To paraphrase a popular expression, a crisis does not create character, it reveals it. The beginning of the Covid19 crisis reminded many of the days immediately after September 11. Those days were marked by a sense that we are all in this together. That didn’t last too long.
So often we are afraid of the wrong things, because our sense of fear comes from media distortions. This crisis is a case in point: Anecdotally I have heard many neighbors and friends who are terrified of getting the coronavirus. They are under the impression that it is a death sentence. I get it, the media spends all day every day counting the bodies, and that has an impact. Perhaps some perspective will help.
My profession has been number crunching for a long time, and those of us who have been around as long as I have understand both the value and the problems with mathematical prediction models. The first thing to realize with models is that whatever answer they give, it is guaranteed to be wrong. This is a given. Real life never follows the model exactly, so being absolutely correct is not even a question. The question is, how wrong is the model?