The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.
John Maynard Keynes
To paraphrase a popular expression, a crisis does not create character, it reveals it. The beginning of the Covid19 crisis reminded many of the days immediately after September 11. Those days were marked by a sense that we are all in this together. That didn’t last too long.
So often we are afraid of the wrong things, because our sense of fear comes from media distortions. This crisis is a case in point: Anecdotally I have heard many neighbors and friends who are terrified of getting the coronavirus. They are under the impression that it is a death sentence. I get it, the media spends all day every day counting the bodies, and that has an impact. Perhaps some perspective will help.
My profession has been number crunching for a long time, and those of us who have been around as long as I have understand both the value and the problems with mathematical prediction models. The first thing to realize with models is that whatever answer they give, it is guaranteed to be wrong. This is a given. Real life never follows the model exactly, so being absolutely correct is not even a question. The question is, how wrong is the model?
If you know who you are then you know what to do, and we are America.
Corrections in the stock market are painful but necessary. The unfortunate fact that they seem to happen at the speed of light these days does not change the long-term truth.