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© AndreaObzerova Link License
  • Iron Capital Perspectives
  • November 20, 2023
  • Chuck Osborne

Foundation

If I have a gift as an investor, it is to always question the narrative and favor reality. This trait, thanks to my parents, has served me well during my more than 30 years in the investment industry. It is also why I have found 2023 to be so frustratingly maddening. Yet it is Thanksgiving once more, and we have much for which to be thankful.


© Laurence Dutton Link License
  • Iron Capital Perspectives
  • November 3, 2023
  • Chuck Osborne

Listen Carefully

What was the most important moment in Jerome Powell’s post-Fed meeting comments this week? When a reporter asked about the Fed staff removing recession from their forecast, Powell responded, “It is hard to see a recession when one looks at the data.”


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  • Iron Capital Perspectives
  • October 3, 2023
  • Chuck Osborne

Aristotle vs. Galileo

Which will you believe, your sense of reason or your sense of sight? Today we continue to hear that higher interest rates are going to slow down our economy. It makes sense: higher rates make home mortgages and car loans more expensive. Rates on credit cards will be higher, so it must have an impact, right? Logic may say yes, but observation says no.


© LFO62 Link License
  • Iron Capital Perspectives
  • September 21, 2023
  • Chuck Osborne

Broken Record

Wall Street is also a broken record today. The Fed met this week and held rates steady, but indicated that they will keep them where they are for longer than they previously thought. The market reacted negatively, and the pundits are once again yelling, “Recession is coming, recession is coming!” But is it?


© ArLawKa AungTun Link License
  • Iron Capital Perspectives
  • August 23, 2023
  • Chuck Osborne

Home, Home on the Range

The bears are back and they sound like a broken record. “We are heading to a recession.” “Inflation is back, just look at oil prices.” The Fed is likely done raising rates, “…but they are going to keep these rates too high for too long.” Finally, they remind us that Fed policy has “long and variable” lags. We know now that these experts have been dead wrong for a year and a half, but are they right now? Let’s take these points one at a time…