Wall Street has seemingly just clued into the fact that it is an election year and a highly charged one at that.
There is a significant probability that with so many people mailing in their ballots, we may not know who the President is on the 3rd of November. That is not going to be good in the short haul.
More important to the market may be the fate of the Senate. If Biden wins and there is a Democratic sweep, the short term may be smooth as this would avoid civil unrest, but then what matters is, what will they actually do? The party platform does not represent what I believe to be the core of the Democratic party, let alone of America as a whole. The question is, who would actually be in charge – the Joe Biden we knew from the Senate, or AOC and her socialist “squad”?
If Trump wins, the long term is more certain, but in the short term we will see riots. The market will not like that. If Biden wins but the Senate remains under Republican control, this could be the best outcome from the market perspective. I’m not saying it is best for our country, that is a political judgment and not my place, but it will mean peace in the short term and moderation in the long term, and Wall Street likes that.
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