The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.
John Maynard Keynes
My profession has been number crunching for a long time, and those of us who have been around as long as I have understand both the value and the problems with mathematical prediction models. The first thing to realize with models is that whatever answer they give, it is guaranteed to be wrong. This is a given. Real life never follows the model exactly, so being absolutely correct is not even a question. The question is, how wrong is the model?
If you know who you are then you know what to do, and we are America.
Corrections in the stock market are painful but necessary. The unfortunate fact that they seem to happen at the speed of light these days does not change the long-term truth.
Americans are rightly concerned with inequality. The strange omission in all of this is the lack of curiosity about what causes inequality.
It is easy to have integrity in theory; it is a little harder when we demand it in practice. Of course, most would laugh at the idea of discussing integrity and politics in the same post, but here I go…