It isn’t just Simone Biles who feels the pressure of unrealistic expectations lately: Second-quarter GDP reported on Thursday this week. The expectation was for 8.5 percent, which had already come down from more than 9 percent; yet the economy actually grew at 6.5 percent according to the first reading of GDP. That is a full two-point deduction, which is a little more than simply “not sticking the landing” – this is a huge disappointment. Or is it?
Inflation is a stranger to many. I wrote an article in 2011 about how hard it was to actually have inflation…yet here we are. Why has inflation suddenly returned, and what can we, as investors, do about it?
Wednesday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out +4.2 percent over the past year. Thursday morning the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, was announced to be 6.2 percent. More concerning is the reaction of Richard Clarida, the Federal Reserve vice-chair, who said he was, “surprised.”
Remembering David F. Swensen, the manager of Yale’s endowment and a legend in our industry. There are lots of great investors, most of whom prefer not to be in the spotlight, and Swensen was certainly one of those. I never met Swensen personally, but he influenced Iron Capital all the same.
Great expectations often lead to disappointment. We are in the midst of an economic recovery from the reaction to COVID-19, and expectations are indeed getting great. Today our great expectations could lead to disappointment coupled with inflation.
