The market today is much like army golf – covering a lot of ground but going nowhere. Why all the volatility? There have been many excuses given by the media, meanwhile we continue to get inflationary signals. Now that inflation is back, every other economic data point must be looked at in this light.
Inflation is a fact, and it is impacting everything from the cost of travel to the Thanksgiving dinner itself. The people impacted the most are those who were already barely making it inside their budget. Still, it is Thanksgiving, and even in a year with high prices there is still much for which to be thankful.
When analytics first came to sports it improved outcomes, because so much of what had happened before then had more to do with tradition than with logic and reason. Knowledge is a powerful thing, and the proper analysis of data can build knowledge. Knowledge, however, is not the same as wisdom. Wisdom comes from the combination of knowledge and experience. Let me give some examples of where analytics gets it wrong.
No one likes corrections, and many investors are downright afraid of them. No one likes seeing the value of what they own going down, even if deep down they know it is temporary. This is the market risk that many investors just do not want to experience. However, there is another risk which is less obvious but far more serious: failing to grow your money at the rate of inflation.
Little things make big things happen, but some details are more important. To the market, the mere idea of oil in the future made a difference, while the detail on timing did not.
