For the last decade growth stocks have outperformed value stocks, large-company stocks have outperformed small-company stocks, and domestic-company stocks have outperformed international-company stocks. This is not sustainable and it will end; the questions are, how and when will it end?
Statues are falling, parts of cities are being taken over, and COVID-19 is reminding us that it is still around. So, are we headed for another large selloff? Not so fast.
The market has come back considerably from the COVID-19-induced fall, and it has many people scratching their heads. The real world doesn’t look so great: we have witnessed civil unrest, record unemployment claims, and a pandemic, and the S&P 500 somehow broke into positive territory for the year. Is it too far too fast?
Oil is not an investment. A barrel of oil is just a barrel of oil. If one were to bury it in his backyard and dig it up many years later, it is still just a barrel of oil. This past Monday, the oil dug up backyards sold for ~negative $40; they had to pay for someone to take it away.
The market hates uncertainty. I hate that phrase. News flash: the future is unknowable and therefore always uncertain. There is never more or less uncertainty; there is always 100 percent uncertainty. The reason past crises appear more certain than this one is because they are in the past. Hindsight is 20/20, foresight is nowhere close.
