As our economy slows and inflation remains stubbornly high, one must wonder if we will ever learn our lessons. We have been here before and we know what causes this, yet here we are once more. We did not learn the lesson of the 1970s; but why?
The war in Ukraine has put a fog on the market. The rising cost of oil exacerbates the already high inflation, and there is significant risk of a recession in Europe. China was already having issues with its economy as its regime continues to reverse the liberating reforms.
What is the real rate of growth? GDP growth rebounded in the 4th quarter of 2021. After slowing to 2.3 percent in the third quarter, the initial reading for 4th quarter is 6.9 percent. Does that mean we are back to the solid growth of earlier this year? It doesn’t feel that way.
All I want for Christmas is for my presents to actually arrive! The combination of Covid shutdowns, stimulus payments, and a lack of workers returning to the workforce have created a nightmare of supply chain logistics.
I have said it a thousand times if I have said it once, but the real indicator of how the market feels is not the headline index return, but what is happening under the surface.
